Solomons Met Service warns of projected major storms as country enters cyclone-season
BY JOHN HOUANIHAU
The Solomon Islands could face up to three cyclones as the country heads into the cyclone season.
The current climate status of the Solomon Islands is under La Niña watch, leading us to anticipate 2-3 tropical cyclones during this cyclone season.
The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service Director David Hiriasia explained to local media when he released the country’s 2024-2025 Tropical Cyclone (TC) outlook on Friday last week.
He said that Tropical cyclones mostly form during the El Niño, a phenomenon, which significantly affects the ocean, temperature, and atmospheric conditions.
Mr Hiriasia said that El Niño is associated with reduced rainfall, whereas La Niña tends to bring increased rainfall.
He said that Tropical cyclones typically occur during El Niño compared to La Niña.
“Regarding our tropical cyclone outlook for 2024-2025, the current climate status is under La Niña watch, leading us to anticipate 2-3 tropical cyclones during this season. This establishes our official tropical cyclone outlook as of Friday, November 1, 2024, extending through April next year, 2025,” said Hiriasia.
On average, Hiriasia said that the country experiences three tropical cyclones each season; however, it is important to note that cyclones can also develop outside the designated season.
“A notable instance is Tropical Cyclone Namu, which formed in May 1986 or Tropical Cyclone Raquel, classified as a Category 1 cyclone, passed near the Solomon Islands in July 2015,” Hiriasia said.
“The tropical cyclone forecast for the previous year, 2023, anticipated 1-2 cyclones when in reality, the country experienced approximately two cyclones, including one that occurred outside the typical cyclone season, known as TC Lola in October 2023.
“Returning to the risk assessment for this season 2024-2025, the presence of 2-3 tropical cyclones, thus, the risk associated has also risen from normal to elevated attributed to the prevailing La Niña climate conditions,” Hiriasia explain.
“Currently, the Solomon Islands is under a La Niña watch. In February of this year, the country experienced conditions associated with El Niño, characterized by warm water shifting across the equator towards the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea. By September, warm ocean waters began to shift towards the Solomon Islands, indicating the onset of La Niña conditions,” he said.
He stated that this climatic variability is expected to influence cyclone formation.
He said that the forecast for 2024-2025 is primarily predicated on the assumption of a persistent La Niña throughout the cyclone season.
“As of November 1st, the updated outlook for the 2024-2025 season anticipates 2-3 tropical cyclones, an increase from the previous expectation of 1-2 cyclones. This adjustment reflects the evolving climatic conditions,” Hiriasia said.
While the primary focus is on the cyclone season from November to April, the Director stated that the peak of the wet season, characterized by significant flooding, generally occurs in January, February, and March, extending into early April.
“Most flooding events in the country are concentrated during these months, as shown by the events of late 2014,” he told Journalists on Friday.
In addition to cyclones, Mr Hiriasia said that the country is also affected by a tropical low-pressure system, which often leads to considerable disasters.
“It is important to reiterate the demand for continuous preparedness while the cyclone season has just started,” appealed Hiriasia.
