Met Service issues advisory on increasing risk of drought, water shortage and tropical cyclones
BY JOHN HOUANIHAU
The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service (SIMS) has issued an El Niño Watch for Solomon Islands warning of heightened risks of drought, water shortages and tropical cyclone occurrence than average in Solomon Islands.
The latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Advisory was released yesterday following climate indicators showing conditions moving towards an El Niño event.
According to SIMS, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean and changes in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are progressing towards meeting El Niño criteria.
ENSO is the primary climate driver influencing year-to-year weather variations in Solomon Islands and consists of three phases: El Niño, which brings warmer-than-normal conditions; Neutral, which reflects near-normal conditions; and La Niña, which brings cooler-than-normal conditions.
SIMS said that the developing El Niño conditions could have significant impacts on communities across the country if early preparedness measures are not taken.
It adds that potential effects include long dry spells, reduced water supplies, threats to food security and increased pressure on public health and community wellbeing.
SIMS pointed to the severe 1997–1998 El Niño event as an example of the risks involved, noting that drought conditions at the time affected many parts of the country, particularly Western Province and Rennell and Bellona Province.
The ENSO advisory urges households to conserve water, prepare for possible dry conditions and stay informed through official weather updates and cyclone warnings.
Farmers are encouraged to closely monitor crops and consider measures to reduce the impact of dry weather on food production.
SIMS said preparedness efforts should be inclusive and has provided guidance to support people with disabilities during extreme weather events.
The Meteorological Service encourages all Solomon Islanders to remain vigilant and take early action to reduce the potential impacts of a developing El Niño.
“Preparedness today can reduce hardship tomorrow,” the advisory said.
According to the advisory, SIMS is assessing the situation and will soon produce its Tropical cyclone (TC) outlook for 2026/2027 cyclone season by October.
For Solomon Islands, three El Ninos stand out in history:
The 1997–1998 “Super” El Niño: This remains the absolute historical benchmark for climate disasters in the country. It caused near-total failures of staple food crops due to a critical lack of rain. The Western Province, Rennell and Bellona Province, and outlying areas like Basakana Island in Malaita Province were hit the hardest, suffering from extreme water shortages and famine conditions.
The 2015–2016 Event: Classified globally as another “very strong” El Niño, this period severely reduced seasonal rainfall across the country. The prolonged dry spells devastated subsistence agriculture, systematically dried up rural streams, and triggered acute water scarcity in highly populated zones.
The 2009–2010 Cycle: Parts of Guadalcanal and neighbouring islands went without single drops of rain for months at a time. Natural freshwater streams completely dried up, forcing joint, urgent interventions by the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) and local water authorities to supply rural communities.
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